In January, major European used car markets experienced a double-digit decline in demand. The Sales Volume Index (SVI) for two-to-four-year-old cars decreased both compared to December and the previous January. Below are key trends and insights into market changes.

1. Significant Decline in Demand

• In Spain, demand dropped by 53.5%, followed by Germany (-28.6%), Austria (-27.2%), Italy (-26.7%), Switzerland (-24.1%), and the UK (-19.7%).
• Compared to January 2024, demand fell most significantly in Spain (-45%), the UK (-37.9%), and Germany (-26.6%).
• This decline is not just a seasonal effect, it is a broader trend across all markets.

2. Decreasing Supply and Stable Residual Values

• Supply declines: Spain (-40.3%), Germany (-25.5%), Italy (-24.1%), the UK (-13.1%), Switzerland (-12.3%), Austria (-9.3%).
• Since demand and supply decreased at similar rates, this did not exert additional pressure on residual values (RVs) of 36 months 60.000 km cars.
• Forecasts indicate that residual values will decline slowly: 2025 (-2.2%), 2026 (-1.1–3.7%) depending on the market.

3. Fuel Type Popularity and Sales Speed

Fastest-selling cars:

• Austria: Diesel (60.1 days), HEV (64.3 days), PHEV (63.8 days), Petrol (67.5 days), BEV (85.7 days).
• Germany: BEV (52.7 days), PHEV (55.1 days), Diesel (56.7 days), Petrol (62.1 days), HEV (62.4 days).
• Italy: CNG (42.9 days), LPG (44 days), HEV (59 days), PHEV (73.8 days), BEV (82.2 days).
• Switzerland: Diesel (76.2 days), HEV (78.2 days), Petrol (78.4 days), BEV (84.7 days), PHEV (93.5 days).

Residual value by fuel type:

• HEVs retain the highest value (Austria – 52.2%, Switzerland – 50.6%).
• BEVs retain the lowest value (around 40% of the original price).

4. Market-Specific Trends

• Austria: Demand is declining for the second consecutive month, and diesel models remain the most popular.
• Germany: BEVs sell the fastest, but their prices are frequently adjusted.
• Italy: Residual values rose to 50.2%, but this is a short-term seasonal effect.
• Spain: Despite increasing inventory levels, used car prices remained stable.
• Switzerland: Demand is decreasing faster than supply, impacting residual values.
• UK: Although sales dropped by 19.7%, residual values have stabilized.

5. Forecasts

Residual values will decline, but without sharp drops. ⚡ Electric vehicles remain the least in demand, with the highest depreciation rates. ⏳ Diesel and hybrid models sell faster than petrol or BEVs. Regional differences persist, but the overall trend shows a slowing market.

Conclusion

The European used car market exhibits a combination of decline and stabilization. As demand and supply decrease simultaneously, car prices remain stable, but the popularity and residual value of electric vehicles continue to decline. Traditional fuel types still dominate the market.

Source: Autovista24